Market update 11 6 09 _ Unemployment at 10.2%
on Nov 6, 2009Ten PercentThe news of the day is the Unemployment Rate. Today it posted at 10.2%, breaching the psychological 10% threshold, posting higher than the Bloomberg estimate, and hitting a level we haven’t seen since April 1983. This isn’t a terrible...

FOMC Press release - no change in rates, some language chage
on Nov 4, 2009A very brief summary of the FOMC statement is:  No change in rates, very little change in verbiage.  Treasuries are selling off a bit pushing yields slightly higher.   One bit of verbiage that will likely see get some headline status...

Market Update 10 29 09: We got the car moving but we're a long way from home
on Oct 29, 2009  On the economy   After 4 Quarters of negative growth we got a 3rd Quarter GDP figure that posted positive…and it beat the estimates.  The Bloomberg survey expected GDP to increase at a 3.2% rate on a quarter-over-quarter bas...

Market Update 10 27 09: The Treasury auctions are going well
on Oct 28, 2009  The Auction   The US Treasury is in the process of auctioning $123 billion worth of securities in 4 separate auctions this week.  The size of this auction was a cause for concern in the market recently and provided some fuel for t...

Market Update 10 22 09 _ My pre-schooler got 8 grand from the government to buy a house
on Oct 23, 2009  We’re with the government and we’re here to help   There is an old phrase that says “That guy couldn’t find his backside with two hands and a map”.  It’s a great saying because conveys both humo...

Market Update 10 1 30 _ Not Halloween yet but the market is spooked
on Oct 3, 2009Yesterday on the way in to work I passed a guy in traffic that was heading out of town in the opposite lane.  It was 65 degrees that morning, the air was crisp, the skies were bright blue, it was the type of weather that could even make a swine-...

Market Update 10 1 30 _ Not Halloween yet but the market is spooked
on Oct 3, 2009    From: Steve Scaramastro [mailto:SScaramastro@Viningsparks.com] Sent: Saturday, October 03, 2009 4:54 PM To: sscaramastro@viningsparks.com Subject: FW: Market Update 10 1 30 _ Not Halloween yet but the market is spooked  ...

Market Update 9 21 09: The plan to drive MBS spreads lower has succeeded
on Sep 21, 2009The Fed and MBS Spreads You all remember the Fed’s plans to buy over a trillion dollars worth of MBS and Agency bonds. I heard my MBS trader this morning quote that the Fed now owns around 34% of the all outstanding Fannie and Freddie pass through...

Yield curve forecast _ September 2009
on Sep 16, 2009Each month Bloomberg surveys 60 to 70 economists to get their estimates of where Fed Funds, the 2-year Treasury, and the 10-year Treasury will be over the next several quarters. I take this data and interpolate for the points in between the survey da...

Market Update 9 16 09 _ What is going on in the market
on Sep 16, 2009What’s up with the market?When I look at recent bond market activity I can hear Jerry Seinfeld’s voice in my head asking “WHAT is the DEAL with THAT?” His signature line could be used almost daily in this market. Yesterday a good friend of my...